NCAAF Week 6 Picks

12(!!) consensus picks this week

Photo by Gene Gallin on Unsplash

We’ve still yet to have the whole gang hit their stride on the college side, but the good news is that those among us who have been been hitting (Danny and Matt), have continued to do so. Combined, those two are 62-38 on college football plays this season, which for you math whizzes, is exactly 62%. That’s good! You should tail their picks.

As a group though, the boys went 20-19 this past week, which loses the vig but was at least an entertaining ride. Our season record is now 128-107, winning 54.47% of our plays and good for +9.48 units. That’s a lot of plays for less than 10 units, but it beats the alternative!

Last week’s consensus plays went 3-1, moving to 14-9 on the season. A fine way to reduce your outlay and still have fun placing bets on Saturdays.

This week, there are a whopping 12 consensus plays. I think Andy and Danny compared notes. Let’s get into it.

Consensus Picks

Thursday night, we have Andy, Danny and Matt all on Troy +13, +14.5 vs Texas St. Then Andy and Matt are on the Tennessee/Arkansas u60.5. Andy and Danny are on the same side on 7 plays, so I’ll list those out here and circle back to the last couple of consensus plays.

Florida +1, +3 vs UCF, Northwestern +13.5, +14 vs Indiana, Michigan +2.5, +3 at Washington, UCLA +28, +28.5 at Penn St, Ball St +9.5 vs Western Michigan, Air Force +8.5, +9.5 vs Navy AND Oregon St -11, -13.5 vs Colorado St.

Al, Danny and Matt are all taking Duke +9 at Georgia Tech, and then Al and Matt are taking Missouri +2.5 at Texas A&M and the Navy/Air Force o34.5. Yes, the OVER in a military service academy matchup.

A Service Academy Over??!

For those out of the loop, when the military service academies meet, so your Army/Navy, Army/Air Force, Navy/Air Force matchups, the games are basically a lock for the under. Why? Because these teams run option offenses which milk the clock, essentially limiting possessions. Something like 13 straight unders have hit in these matchups, regardless of how low the books set the total at. According to an article from 2022 that I just googled (lol journalism baby), since 2005, the under is 42-9-1 and I’m pretty sure it has hit in every game since that post was published, so something closer to 50-9-1. And Matt and I like the over.

If you want an explanation, let me start by simply saying that Navy is very good. They’re averaging more than this total by themselves, and I’m fully willing to pin this bet on Navy having to hit 35 points on their own. Secondly, Air Force is…wait for it…very bad. Excellent analysis, I know. But Air Force can’t score. And when a bad team can’t score, it means their bad defense is going to see the field a ton. Maybe we end up looking like dummies, but maybe, just maybe, we look like geniuses.

For the full list of plays, we’ve got them listed out below.

Al

Season record: 33-35-1 (-4.97u)

Auburn +24.5, Duke +9, Missouri +2.5, Navy/Air Force o34.5, Toledo -6.5, Uconn -14

Andy

Season record: 30-32-0 (-4.7u)

Troy +14.5, UTEP +10.5, Tennessee/Arkansas u60.5, Florida +1, Auburn/Georgia u54.5, Alabama/Vanderbilt o55, Northwestern +14, Michigan +3, Michigan/Washington o40.5, UCLA +28.5, California +13, FSU +15, Duke/Georgia Tech u54, West Virginia/Oklahoma St u66, App St/Marshall u58, Ball St +9.5, Air Force +8.5, Temple +14.5, Oregon St -13.5, Kansas +3

Chris

Season record: 3-2-0 (+0.73u)

None.

Danny

Season record: 34-19-0 (+11.94u)

Troy +13, Syracuse +6.5, Tennessee -13.5, Florida +3, Northwestern +13.5, Michigan +2.5, Purdue +14, UCLA +28, NIU -17, Duke +9, Ball St +9.5, Air Force +9.5, South Carolina +10, Temple +17, Oregon St -11, Southern Miss +14.5, San Jose St -6.5, Texas Tech +6

Matt

Season record: 28-19-0 (+6.48u)

Troy +13, Houston/TCU o51, Oregon -24, Tennessee/Arkansas u60.5, Clemson -14.5, Duke +9, Missouri +2.5, Navy/Air Force o34.5, Iowa +21, South Alabama -3

Let us know if you’ve got a play you feel especially good about!