NFL Week 12 Picks
Is this finally the week the public gets crushed?
We’ve been steadily losing money here for the better part of two months. The bulk of it was a three week stretch in weeks 5-7. Since then, we’re a not-good-but-not-awful 51-52. It’s enough to make us question our methods. So I looked into it. Turns out the sportsbooks are having an even worse time than we are.
DraftKings alone has revised revenue expectations by $250M. The books are getting crushed by the public, especially with favorites covering. So if you aren’t reading this, I don’t blame you. But if you are, just know that the public doesn’t win for long. And this current hot streak has been happening for a while.
So after saying that, I’m wondering if my bets (4 of 6 on favorites including a couple of long ones) are a smart play this week, but until I see the public cool off, I’m not going to be afraid of laying it with favorites when I like the side.
Picks Recap
Last week I went 6-5 while Andy and Matt combined for a 3-8 week. That’s a 9-13 and another loser. Thanks to our red-hot start, we’re still in the black though, 138-123 overall, good for +2.58u.
Consensus plays went 2-2 last week.
On to the plays:
PIT at CLE
CONSENSUS! Andy and I are both taking the Steelers in Cleveland, PIT -3.5. I’m also taking the rare TNF over 35.5 and Andy’s on the usual under 37.
NOTE: As our picks were made earlier, we didn’t anticipate the snow that Cleveland is currently expecting tonight. This one may not be the week to take the over or the favorite, so you may want to lay off here. We’re tracking these as full plays though.
KC at CAR
You cannot convince me to get off of this one. Mahomes off a loss against the worst team in the league? I’d lay 20. I don’t care if everyone’s on the Chiefs here. I don’t care if a Chiefs cover will bankrupt a casino. The Chiefs are covering this one barring an act of god. KC -11.
MIN at CHI
Andy’s taking another under here, u39.5. With the weather Cleveland is seeing, I wouldn’t be surprised if Chicago sees some of that too. I like it.
NE at MIA
CONSENSUS! Andy and I are on the under here as well, u46.5. A pair of under-the-radar defenses square off against very different offenses talentwise.
TB at NYG
I’m on TB -5.5 and the over 41.5. This is based on Daniel Jones’ numbers, so hopefully Tommy Cutlets is a worthwhile replacement, and maybe the return of Mike Evans adds a little juice to the Fabulous Baker Boys.
DAL at WAS
CONSENSUS! The public is all over the Commanders here, which is why we here at SLP HQ are taking the 10 points with the Cowboys. Andy and Danny are both on DAL +10, and Andy’s adding on the over 44.5.
SF at GB
I know I just said you should zig when the public zags, but I also mentioned the public has been raking lately and I think they’re right about this one. Give me the suddenly healthy 49ers on the road against the (mid) Packers. SF +2.
PHI at LAR
CONSENSUS! I have a feeling this is going to be a great game. Andy and I are on opposite sides on the spread, with him on LAR +3 while I’m laying it with PHI -3, but we’re in agreement on the total. I got the under 50.5, and he got it at u49.
BAL at LAC
CONSENSUS! Andy and I are in lockstep this week, with this being our 4th consensus agreement. We’re taking the home dog here, LAC +3. As a bonus, Andy’s taking the under 51 here too.
Full slate of picks below:
Al
Season record: (53-46, +2.23u)
PIT -3.5, PIT/CLE o35.5, KC -11, NE/MIA u46.5, TB -5.5, TB/NYG o41.5, SF +2, PHI -3, PHI/LAR u50.5, LAC +3
Andy
Season record: (34-33, -2.06u)
PIT -3.5, PIT/CLE u37, MIN/CHI u39.5, NE/MIA u46.5, DAL +10, DAL/WAS o44.5, LAR +3, PHI/LAR u49, LAC +3, BAL/LAC u51
Chris
Season record: (4-3, +0.64u)
None.
Danny
Season record: (25-24-1, -1.25u)
DAL +10
Matt
Season record: (22-17-1, +3.02u)
None.