NFL Week 2 Picks

Featuring plays in 12 of 16 games this week.

Photo by Adrian Curiel on Unsplash

Last week’s picks went a whopping 20-6-2!!!

Some loyal listeners/readers sent us screenshots of winning parlay tickets or let us know that they were able to go out and get a new PS5 thanks to our plays and I’ve got to say, you absolutely love to see it.

Our best bets from the podcast went 5-0.

Al and Danny hadn’t lost a bet going into MNF, a combined 11-0-1, but were on opposite sides in that contest. Danny was smart and took the 49ers. He’s got the best record of the week at 6-0-1. Pretty hard to top that!

Shall we stunt on ‘em another week?

MIA at BUF

CONSENSUS! Danny’s taking the 2.5 points with the home team here, while Al and Matt are teaming up on the under at 49. Primetime unders have been hitting at an outrageous clip over the last 2 or 3 years. I think we took every TNF under last season.

LAC at CAR

Andy’s taking the Chargers -6 on the road AND taking the under at 39. I think he probably figures he can’t lose both of these. I really wanted to pull the trigger on the Panthers here but they’re just so bad.

NO at DAL

Al is taking the over at 45.5. I couldn’t quite take the points with New Orleans, so I’ll settle on the over between two teams that combined to score 80 points last week.

TB at DET

We’ve got a fight on our hands here with Andy taking the Lions -6 at home and Danny and Matt joining forces on the Bucs +7.

IND at GB

A stinky one for you real degenerates out there. I’m (Al) taking the Packers +3.5 at home, without Jordan Love, against a Colts team that looked pretty good in a loss against the Texans last week. Just hoping that Malik Willis can be adequate as a game manager and let the ground game and defense keep this one close.

CLE at JAX

You thought that was the stinkiest play of the week? Well this one’s in the running too. Al is also taking the Browns +3.5 down in Duval. Deshaun Watson might be the second-worst QB in the league, but he’s certainly the most boring. He doesn’t turn it over. He doesn’t throw downfield. He doesn’t throw touchdowns. The guy just goes out there and exists for 3.5 hours. Big-time loser. But despite all of that, the Jags do not like to put teams away. In fact, I’m not sure they’re capable of it even if they wanted to. I’m looking for a Jags walkoff FG for the win here.

SEA at NE

Andy’s on the under 38(!!) and Matt’s laying 3 with the Seahawks.

NYJ at TEN

Here, we’ve got Andy on another under at 40.5, while Danny is taking the Titans +3.5. The Jets and their anemic offense have a short week after getting beat up by the 49ers on MNF and have to travel to Nashville for this one.

LAR at ARI

CONSENSUS! Al and Danny are both taking the Rams +1.5 here, despite OL injuries and the loss of Puka Nacua for the next month. LA has the better coach and QB.

PIT at DEN

Matt is fading this Broncos offense against what may be the best defense in the league. He’s on Broncos team total under 17 points. The only reason this didn’t hit against Seattle last week was because the defense recorded not one but two safeties, getting Denver to 20 points. TJ Watt is gonna have Bo Nix in hell.

CIN at KC

CONSENSUS! Al and Matt are teaming up on Joe Burrow (hehe) and taking Cincy +6 on the road here. Let’s chalk up Week 1 to rust. They should look a lot better against the defending Champs.

CHI at HOU

So Caleb Williams got win #1 in game #1, a rare feat for rookie QBs. He’s gonna get L #1 this week. Al is taking the Texans -6.5 at home.

Wong Teasers

I missed this last week, but I want to start tracking performance on Wong teasers. For the uninitiated, a Wong teaser is a 2-leg 6-pt teaser at -120 odds or better where you are teasing both legs through 3 and 7.

So for instance, if a team is an underdog by 1.5 to 2.5 points, you can move the line six points from +1.5 to +7.5 or +2.5 to +8.5. On the other side of that coin, you can take a heavy favorite of -7.5 to -8.5 and tease that line down to -1.5 or -2.5.

The idea is that you are adding a lot of value by taking a small underdog and adding almost a touchdown in value to their line, or you’re taking a heavy favorite and bringing them down close to a pick ‘em. Historically, these hit around 60% of the time, so they are a +EV bet in the NFL.

Here are the teams in the Wong range (or close) this week: BUF +2.5, NYG +1.5, LAR +1.5. So a typical teaser bet would look like this:

BUF +2.5 +8.5, NYG +1.5 +7.5 at -120 odds.

This is a parlay. You need both teams to cover the alternate spreads in order to win the bet.

Beyond those three teams, there are a couple of teams with lines moving toward the Wong range: CLE +3, and DET -7. There are also around 5 games where teams are -6 or -6.5. These lines haven’t really moved, so they probably won’t end up in the Wong range, but they’re worth noting here: LAC -6.5, SF -6, HOU -6, PHI -6.5.

Al

Season record: (6-1)

BUF/MIA u49, NO/DAL o45.5, GB +3.5, CLE +3.5, LAR +1.5, CIN +6, HOU -6.5

Andy

Season record: (4-3)

LAC -6, LAC/CAR u39, DET -6, SEA/NE u38, NYJ/TEN u40.5

Chris

Season record: (1-1)

None.

Danny

Season record: (6-0-1)

BUF +2.5, TB +7, TEN +3.5, LAR +1.5

Matt

Season record: (3-1)

BUF/MIA u49, TB +7, SEA -3, DEN TT u17, CIN +6