NFL Week 5 Picks
Boys are still hot!
Just a ho-hum 11-7 week from us. It’s our worst week of NFL and we hit 61%. I’m not gonna keep telling you to tail us!*
Podcast best bets went 2-1 last week.
Consensus bets went 1-1 last week thanks to Brandon Aubrey missing a late Cowboys FG. Oh well.
Teaser legs went 6-2, so you’d have gone 15-13 on the Wongs last week, which is still not great. At -120 odds, you’d have been down about a half a unit. I think Tennessee ended up landing in the Wong range as well and they covered easily, so if you added that to your rotation, you’d have won about 6 more bets, which netted you another almost 5 units, so a profitable week overall. The 5 legs I highlighted last week actually included the 2 losers, Buffalo and the Jets. The Jets losing that game really swung these teasers into the red.
*NOTE: I am definitely going to keep telling you to tail us.
Shall we stunt on ‘em another week?
TB at ATL
Andy and Danny are on the Bucs here, taking TB +1.5, +2 at ATL while Al is laying the short spread with the Falcons, ATL -1.5 vs TB. As this is a Thursday night game, you should note that Andy is taking the TB/ATL u43.5. Sometimes a broken record sounds good.
NYJ at MIN
Al and Andy are on opposite sides here and I must admit, the Vikings are the much more attractive side here. Andy’s taking MIN -2.5 vs NYJ while I’m on NYJ +2.5 at MIN.
CAR at CHI
I’m taking the Panthers and the points here, CAR +4 at CHI. The Red Rocket has restored a roaring offense to the once dismal Panthers. The defense still shows something to be desired, and this isn’t a team that’s going to suddenly make the playoffs, but the Panthers are firmly bettable again. THEY’RE OFF THE BLACKLIST!
BAL at CIN
Andy’s on the BAL/CIN u51. That’s a lot of points for an AFC North divisional matchup.
BUF at HOU
Bounceback spot for the Bills, or get right game for the Texans? Danny says the Bills bounce back. He’s on BUF -1 at HOU.
IND at JAX
CONSENSUS! Andy and Danny are taking the Colts here. We’re in full Jags fade mode. That’s a team that looks like they’re already planning their offseason. IND +2.5, +3 at JAX. Andy’s also on this under as well, IND/JAX u46.5.
CLE at WAS
Danny taking WAS -3 vs CLE here keeps this one from being consensus, as Andy and I are holding our noses and taking the points with the Browns on the road, CLE +3, +3.5 at WAS. You may be wondering why we like the Browns here, and while I can’t speak for Andy, I’d say it’s usually a good idea in the NFL to fade the side that looks like they’ve suddenly figured out how to dominate the league. Plus, the Browns’ offense has kind of shown signs of life here and there. I’m counting on this Commanders defense to provide them the opportunity to finally click.
ARI at SF
Al is on ARI +7.5 at SF here. It’s hard to win games in this league by more than a touchdown, especially every week, and especially against division opponents. Expect the Cards to hang with the 9ers.
GB at LAR
If I told you someone was on the under here, I bet you’d be able to guess who. That’s right, Andy’s on the GB/LAR u48. A bit of a theme with him, and one of four unders he likes this week.
NYG at SEA
CONSENSUS! Andy and I are taking SEA -6 vs NYG. The Seahawks are good. Potent offense and tough defense means this one shouldn’t be close.
NO at KC
Danny is taking the Saints in this spot, NO +5.5 at KC. I like the faith in the Saints here as they’ve looked good early, and I also think the Chiefs are a bit fraudulent this year, but this one’s in KC. That’s a tough place to go in and win, especially in a primetime spot. I’ll be rooting for him to cover though!
Wong Teasers
If you’re unfamiliar with a Wong teaser, or teasers in general, check out the explainer in this post.
Here are the Wong teaser legs this week: TB +1.5, NYJ +2.5, IND +2.5, HOU +1.5, CIN +2.5, LV +2.5, SF -7.5, DAL +2.5.
Beyond those, here are some teams with lines moving toward the Wong range: MIA +1, LAR +3.
Full slate of picks below:
Al
Season record: (24-8)
ATL -1.5, NYJ +2.5, CAR +4, CLE +3.5, ARI +7.5, SEA -6
Andy
Season record: (15-9)
TB +2, TB/ATL u43.5, MIN -2.5, BAL/CIN u51, IND +3, IND/JAX u46.5, CLE +3, GB/LAR u48, SEA -6
Chris
Season record: (4-3)
None.
Danny
Season record: (15-5-1)
TB +1.5, BUF -1, IND +2.5, WAS -3, NO +5.5
Matt
Season record: (11-4-1)
None.
If my math is correct, that's 69 wins (nice) vs 29 losses, which is over 70%. That's boat money. That's retire on a private island money. Great job, boys!