NFL Week 8 Picks
32 plays this week so buckle up!
An 0-4 week on consensus bets featured some close calls.
The TNF under missed due to a last minute meaningless TD pass from Jake Haener after a 52 yard fumble return for TD less than three minutes earlier.
We got hooked on the Packers play, with their game-winning FG netting them a 2 point win instead of the 3 that we needed.
And the Bucs had the ball down 10 with a chance to get us a back door cover after an onside kick recovery and subsequent touchdown brought them within striking distance. This one felt like we were lucky to be in it, but we still had a shot at the end. Sometimes that’s the way sports betting goes.
Things are going to turn around eventually and we’re counting on that happening this week because we’ve got 32 picks coming your way, which is our biggest batch of bets in a single week since we went 25-9 back in week 3!
It was a 6-13 week for us, our third losing week in a row. We’re in a rut here and the tides are about to turn. Incredibly, we’re still up more than 8 units on the season, collectively going 87-71 for a much more pedestrian 55% hit rate. We’re bumping that back up over 60% this week.
On to the plays:
MIN at LAR
CONSENSUS! It’s Thursday Night Football which, say it with me now, means we’re on the MIN/LARu48. (I actually like the over here, but not enough to play it so I fully endorse the TNF under here.)
BAL at CLE
I’m on the BAL/CLE o44.5 here and I want to bet the Browns, but this feels like the game where Jameis takes his lumps against the league’s best before going on a tear, so I’m laying off the spread. Matt’s on the CLE TT o17 though, so like minds…
TEN at DET
I know the Titans have been putrid. I know the Lions are the best in the NFC. I know laying it with the Lions sounds like a lock. I know all of these things BUT! I also know the Titans have a good defense. The Lions are down a few guys and they’re still figuring out how to rush the passer. Brian Callahan can run an offense with Mason Rudolph. I’m taking the Titans to cover. TEN +11.5 at DET.
IND at HOU
Danny’s on IND +6 at HOU. Matt’s on IND/HOU u46.5.
GB at JAX
CONSENSUS! GB -4.5 at JAX. Let’s be real, the Jags can’t hang in this one.
ARI at MIA
Tua’s back baby! Regardless of whether you think that’s a good idea, I’m sure the Dolphins’ offense is pleased. I’m on MIA -3 vs ARI while Andy’s on ARI/MIA u46.5.
NYJ at NE
CONSENSUS! NE +7 vs NYJ. I’m pretty sure every week I say I’m going to stop betting on the Patriots but they just keep getting juicy lines! Drake Maye is bound to figure out how to score some points in this league.
These teams just played in the Meadowlands in Week 3 and it wasn’t close, but we’re sticking with touchdown-plus dogs in divisional games, especially when they’re at home. We don’t need them to win, we just need them to cover. Andy’s also on the NYJ/NE u41.5.
ATL at TB
Consensus! TB +2, 2.5 vs ATL AND ATL/TB o46! We’re double dipping! Two consensus picks in one game! These teams duked it out in a shootout in Atlanta just a few weeks ago, combining for 60 points in regulation. The Bucs are for real, despite their depleted WR corps. They need a W here if they plan on winning this division. They’ll go all out to keep this one close.
CHI at WAS
Jayden Daniels has the Commanders talking playoffs, but his rib injury has him listed as week-to-week. That means I expect him to miss this one and I don’t think Marcus Mariota can do the things Jayden Daniels can against a very stout Bears defense. Add in Washington’s porous defense, and Caleb Williams could look worthy of his #1 overall draft slot in this one. Bet CHI -2.5 at WAS, but be prepared to bet yourself out of this spot if Daniels plays. It’s worth eating the vig just to see.
PHI at CIN
Matt’s laying it with the Bengals here, CIN -2.5 vs PHI. Both of these teams need to go on a tear pretty soon if they want to stay in playoff contention.
CAR at DEN
We briefly discussed this one on our NFL Week 8 preview podcast. Andy Dalton is OUT this week due to a sprained thumb. This could very well be Bryce Young’s last chance to make his case as a QB1 in this league. And he’ll have most of the practice week to prepare for it. Is he good enough to get another shot in Carolina, or even elsewhere (conveniently, before the trade deadline), or will he show himself to be the same underwhelming QB he’s been to date and resign himself to a career as a clipboard holder? Actual real-life stakes make this yawnfest watchable in my opinion.
Danny’s on DEN -8 vs CAR.
KC at LV
CONSENSUS! We’re taking the home divisional dog here when they’re getting more than a touchdown. I may end up losing every bet I place fading the Chiefs, but by god I stand by it that they are not the juggernaut their record would indicate. Mid offense. Mid defense. Weak schedule. LV +10 vs KC.
DAL at SF
A good one on SNF this week. Matt’s taking DAL +4 at SF. Brock Purdy is a game manager and a hell of a good one at that. But he’ll be without CMac, Aiyuk, and possibly Deebo in this one. He’s not good enough to go out there and win a game all on his own. Andy likes the DAL/SF o46.5 here too.
NYG at PIT
Mr. Unlimited returned last week for the Steelers and they hung 37 points on a good Jets defense. The Steelers are 5-2. Are they a league menace, or are they going to fall down to earth a little bit?
Around here, it depends on who you ask. Andy and Danny are on PIT -6. 6.5 vs NYG. Matt’s on the NYG TT u14.5. Me? I’m taking the Giants. NYG +6.5 at PIT AND the NYG/PIT o36.5.
The Steelers’ wins have come against the Falcons week 1 while Kirk was still hobbled, the Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, and the Jets. Not exactly elite opponents. Meanwhile, the Giants have lost to the Vikings, Commanders, Cowboys, Bengals, and Eagles. I’m not saying they’re going to go into Pittsburgh and steal a W, but I think the betting public may be a little too high on the Steelers and a little too low on the Giants here, and there’s some meat on the bone looking at the spread.
Got to give it up to Mike Tomlin though. This man is not capable of coaching a team with a losing record. He wouldn’t know how!! 16 straight seasons without a losing record. Outrageous consistency.
Full slate of picks below:
Al
Season record: (31-23, +5.21u)
BAL/CLE o44.5, TEN +11.5, GB -4.5, MIA -3, NE +7, TB +2.5, ATL/TB o46, CHI -2.5, LV +10, NYG +6.5, NYG/PIT o36.5
Andy
Season record: (18-19, -2.62u)
MIN/LAR u48, ARI/MIA u46.5, NE +7, NYJ/NE u41.5, TB +2, ATL/TB o46, DAL/SF o46.5, PIT -6.5
Chris
Season record: (4-3, +0.64u)
None.
Danny
Season record: (19-18-1, -0.71u)
MIN/LAR u48, IND +6, GB -4.5, NE +7, DEN -8, PIT -6
Matt
Season record: (15-8-1, +5.65u)
MIN/LAR u48, CLE TT o17, IND/HOU u46.5, CIN -2.5, LV +10, DAL +4, NYG TT u14.5