NFL Week 9 Picks
We stemmed the tide! Now we ride the wave.
After I jinxed us, bragging about how we hadn’t had back to back losing weeks in three seasons of doing this, we proceeded to put up THREE consecutive stinkers.
Well that all changed this week when we went a perfect 16-16. We lost the vig, but more importantly, we turned the tide.
Remarkably, we’re still up 6.73 units on the season, just in time to add to that this week.
So no more jinxes, no tooting our own horns, let’s just ride the wave.
On to the plays:
HOU at NYJ
CONSENSUS! It’s Thursday Night Football which means…we’re *insert record scratch* betting the spread?! Danny and I are taking the points with the Texans. The Jets may win but I’ll be damned if I’m gonna bet on ‘em. HOU +2.5 at NYJ.
And just in case you thought we lost our marbles, Andy’s on HOU/NYJ u42. Some of us still have principles.
DAL at ATL
Andy and Danny are taking the points with the Cowboys here, DAL +2.5 at ATL, while I’m on the Falcons, ATL -2.5 vs DAL. I’m also playing the total, taking DAL/ATL u51.5.
DEN at BAL
Danny and I are on opposite sides here as well. I’m on DEN +9.5 at BAL and Danny’s taking BAL -9.
MIA at BUF
CONSENSUS! TWICE! I think a lot of us thought Tua would look like his old self immediately and he came out looking rusty as hell. We’re betting it carries over another week in Buffalo.
BUF -6 vs MIA. We’re ALSO betting on the under, MIA/BUF u50.
NO at CAR
Carr should be back for the Saints. If you didn’t know anything else, that’d be enough. Hell, you might even consider laying a touchdown with Spencer Rattler at the helm. Bryce Young apparently looked better in his first start since getting benched for Andy Dalton last week, but I couldn’t tell ya because I could not be paid to watch the Carolina Panthers. NO -7 at CAR. Also, NO/CAR o43.5.
LV at CIN
CONSENSUS! LV +8 at CIN. I’ll be honest, I’m not sure the Bengals are good. And I’m not completely convinced the Raiders are bad. Ergo, take the points.
LAC at CLE
Here’s one I thought I would’ve liked the other side on, but after crunching the numbers, give me the road favorite. LAC -1 at CLE. Andy’s also taking the under here, LAC/CLE u42.5.
IND at MIN
The Vikings are a different class of opponent at home. Give me MIN -5.5 vs IND. I know the Colts are better than their record and I know Flacco looked good in relief, but the Vikings are gonna have him looking at South Florida retirement community brochures at halftime. Don’t care what the number is (I’ve got the spread around 12), lay it with the better side.
WAS at NYG
I feel bad for the Giants. They aren’t supposed to be this bad. They shouldn’t be this bad. And yet, they’re clearly the worst team in this division. It stinks when your season is over at the midway point. Jayden Daniels is fun though, and as long as he’s playing, the Commanders are favorites for a reason. WAS -4 at NYG.
DET at GB
I’m taking my Lions. DET -2.5 at GB.
JAX at PHI
In what world do the Jags hang here? If you haven’t been paying attention, you might think the Eagles are mid this year. Unfortunately, that is not the case. This is still a good team with an incredibly difficult offense to stop, with a top 5 running back and solid defense. The Jags are…not that. They traded one of their best offensive linemen this week when they certainly can’t afford to be shipping out talent there. They offense can’t get out of its own way, and despite an improving secondary, the defense is still pretty porous. Don’t be afraid of the hook here. PHI -7.5 vs JAX.
TB at KC
CONSENSUS! Full disclosure: I cannot stop betting against the Chiefs.
I’m convinced they are worse than their record indicates. The defense is underrated, but the offense is not on par with past years. They’re adding players to try and mask it, and their schedule will allow them to cover their blemishes for the bulk of the regular season, but this isn’t a Super Bowl worthy team.
Danny and I are taking the Bucs here, TB +8.5 at KC. I’m also taking the over, TB/KC o44.5.
Full slate of picks below:
Al
Season record: (36-29, +3.76u)
HOU +2.5, ATL -2.5, DAL/ATL u51.5, DEN +9.5, BUF -6, MIA/BUF u50, NO -7, LV +8, LAC -1, MIN -5.5, WAS -4 DET -2.5, PHI -7.5, TB +8.5, TB/KC o44.5
Andy
Season record: (22-23, -2.98u)
HOU/NYJ u42.5, DAL +2.5, BUF -6, MIA/BUF u50, NO/CAR o43.5, LAC/CLE u42.5
Chris
Season record: (4-3, +0.64u)
None.
Danny
Season record: (23-20-1, +0.93u)
HOU +2.5, DAL +2.5, BAL -9, BUF -6, LV +8, TB +8.5
Matt
Season record: (18-12-1, +4.38u)
None.